Why Latino voters shifted Republican to help elect Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump’s resounding victory appears buoyed by a key constituency – Latino voters – for whom economic concerns may have outweighed his harsh rhetoric surrounding immigration.

An NBC News exit poll suggests 46% of Latino voters backed Republicans in this election, and that share was even greater (55%) among Latino men. Those percentages significantly exceed Mr. Trump’s performance in the 2020 election, when the same exit poll estimated Republican support from 32% of Latino voters and 36% of Latino men.

Experts caution against reading too much into exit polls, which may be skewed given the large share of citizens voting early or by mail.

Still, the big question now is what motivated the apparent surge of Republican support from Latino voters, who by some estimates could make up nearly 15% of the U.S. electorate this year.

“For many different demographic groups, including Latinos, inflation was just really a big driving factor,” says John Tuman, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas who has researched Latino voters. “[It was] very hard for Biden and then Harris, who took over as a candidate very late in the campaign, to push back against that narrative.”

Former President Donald Trump’s resounding victory appears buoyed by a key constituency – Latino voters – whose economic concerns may have outweighed his harsh rhetoric surrounding immigration.

As of Wednesday afternoon, an NBC News exit poll suggests 46% of Latino voters went Republican in this election, and that share was even greater (55%) among Latino men. Those percentages significantly exceed Mr. Trump’s performance in the 2020 election, when the same exit poll estimated Republican support from 32% of Latino voters and 36% of Latino men.

Experts caution against reading too much into exit polls, which may be skewed given the large share of citizens voting early or by mail ballot. On top of that, Latinos are not a monolithic voting bloc, says John Tuman, executive associate dean in liberal arts and political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Their views can differ based on everything from ancestry and country of origin to religion and housing situations.

And even with gains among Latino voters, Republican victories are largely the result of overwhelming support among white voters. Fifty-seven percent of white voters, who make up the bulk of the electorate, cast ballots favoring the GOP, according to the NBC News exit poll.

Still, the big question now is what motivated the apparent surge of Republican support from Latino voters, who by some estimates could make up nearly 15% of the U.S. electorate this year. In certain battleground states, that percentage is even higher. Latinos were expected to represent a quarter of Arizona voters. In Nevada, they make up about 1 in every 5 voters.

“For many different demographic groups, including Latinos, inflation was just really a big driving factor,” says Dr. Tuman, who has researched Latino voters. “[It was] very hard for Biden and then Harris, who took over as a candidate very late in the campaign, to push back against that narrative.”