Every convention promises victory. At this year’s RNC, Republicans feel it.

By mzaxazm


Along with the red sequins and cowboy hats, something just as ubiquitous is on display at this year’s Republican National Convention: confidence.

The GOP hasn’t won the U.S. popular vote in two decades. Its last winning presidential candidate – former President Donald Trump – eked out a 2016 Electoral College victory that surprised even his own team. In 2020, President Joe Biden held a steady polling lead from Super Tuesday to Election Day. 

Why We Wrote This

After a year in which former President Donald Trump faced prolonged legal battles, and GOP divisions wreaked havoc in Congress, Republicans are reveling in a remarkable sense of unity.

But now, not only is Mr. Trump ahead in national polling, but he also holds clear leads in the top swing states. His legal situation – despite a conviction in the New York hush money case – has taken a markedly favorable turn. And following Mr. Biden’s dismal June debate performance, and then Saturday’s failed assassination attempt on Mr. Trump, many strategists are predicting a GOP sweep of Congress as well as the White House. 

While conventions always trumpet hope, this time it seems more real.

“It feels very different,” GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina tells the Monitor. “I’ve been to each of the last five conventions, and this is the first one where you really see a pep in everybody’s step.”

Along with the red sequins and cowboy hats, something just as ubiquitous is on display at this year’s Republican National Convention: confidence.

For the first time in decades, Republicans are in the unfamiliar position of holding a clear lead as they head into the fall general election campaign. There’s a sense of jubilation in the air, bordering on giddiness. Some are even daring to invoke the “L” word – as in “landslide.” 

The GOP hasn’t won the U.S. popular vote in two decades. Its last winning presidential candidate – former President Donald Trump – eked out a 2016 Electoral College victory that surprised even his own team, since he’d trailed in the polls all year. In 2020, President Joe Biden held a steady polling lead from Super Tuesday to Election Day. In fact, it’s been 20 years since Republicans have gone into their nominating convention ahead in the polls.

Why We Wrote This

After a year in which former President Donald Trump faced prolonged legal battles, and GOP divisions wreaked havoc in Congress, Republicans are reveling in a remarkable sense of unity.

As recently as 2022, many strategists were writing Mr. Trump’s political obituary, blaming him for the party’s underperformance in the midterm elections and fretting about his criminal indictments and spiraling legal woes.

But now, not only is Mr. Trump ahead in nearly all national polling, but he also holds clear leads in the seven top swing states. His legal situation – despite a conviction in the New York hush money case – has taken a markedly favorable turn, with bigger cases delayed or dismissed. And following Mr. Biden’s dismal June debate performance, which led to frantic calls from many Democrats for a new candidate to nominate, and then Saturday’s failed assassination attempt on Mr. Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, GOP strategists are eyeing an even bigger map. At a breakfast Tuesday morning, Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio suggested the blue states of Minnesota, Virginia, New Jersey, and New Mexico are also now in play.

Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump made an appearance Tuesday, July 16, 2024, at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee wearing a bandage over his ear, which was pierced by a bullet in Saturday’s assassination attempt.

Some Republicans can hardly get their heads around it all. 

“It feels very different,” GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina tells the Monitor. “I’ve been to each of the last five conventions, and this is the first one where you really see a pep in everybody’s step.”



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